Winchester whisperer
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
US economy

Here's a snippet from my favourite US economic commentator, James Meyer:
"So far, the government has effectively gained control of two banks (Citigroup and Bank of America), two car companies (GM and Chrysler), one auto finance company (GMAC), an insurance company (AIG) and two mortgage intermediaries (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). While it is too early to judge whether these companies are better or worse off as a result of the government’s active intervention, the scorecard to date isn’t very good. Citigroup is still a cluttered mess trying to find a way to separate its good assets from its bad ones. Bank of America is searching for a new CEO. So far, it has gotten a few rejections. GM has emerged from bankruptcy and has an experienced non-executive CEO. But it can’t find a new CFO because of pay constraints. Chrysler is a complete mess that might not survive. AIG finally got a good CEO but he now threatens to leave due to overbearing constraints. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac executive suites have become revolving doors and both have needed more money and continue to do so. They currently operate with completely broken models. Now the government wants to expand further. A 2,100 page health care bill and a 1,100 page financial reform package promise to become regulatory quagmires...The bottom line is that I believe stocks will move higher at least through year end. But every day we get closer to rising interest rates, rising taxes, plus to ongoing headwinds of a weak dollar and huge deficits. I suspect that it will be harder to stocks to achieve above average gains in 2010 than it was in 2009. "
"So far, the government has effectively gained control of two banks (Citigroup and Bank of America), two car companies (GM and Chrysler), one auto finance company (GMAC), an insurance company (AIG) and two mortgage intermediaries (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). While it is too early to judge whether these companies are better or worse off as a result of the government’s active intervention, the scorecard to date isn’t very good. Citigroup is still a cluttered mess trying to find a way to separate its good assets from its bad ones. Bank of America is searching for a new CEO. So far, it has gotten a few rejections. GM has emerged from bankruptcy and has an experienced non-executive CEO. But it can’t find a new CFO because of pay constraints. Chrysler is a complete mess that might not survive. AIG finally got a good CEO but he now threatens to leave due to overbearing constraints. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac executive suites have become revolving doors and both have needed more money and continue to do so. They currently operate with completely broken models. Now the government wants to expand further. A 2,100 page health care bill and a 1,100 page financial reform package promise to become regulatory quagmires...The bottom line is that I believe stocks will move higher at least through year end. But every day we get closer to rising interest rates, rising taxes, plus to ongoing headwinds of a weak dollar and huge deficits. I suspect that it will be harder to stocks to achieve above average gains in 2010 than it was in 2009. "
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Indian roads

I hadn't been to Delhi for many years but there was no improvement in the pandemonium on the roads. One new feature was white lines to mark lanes but very few drivers seemed to find them useful. Indicators are not popular either and rear view mirrors are optional. One day a coach in which I was travelling stopped in the middle of a motorway and opened its doors: the driver had noticed a pal of his walking by the side of the road and was offering him a lift; no matter that the pedestrian had to run across two lanes of a busy motorway to get into the coach.
Monday, November 02, 2009
Friday, October 30, 2009
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Crackpot parable

A water bearer in China had two large pots, each hung on the ends of a pole which he carried across his neck. One of the pots had a crack in it, while the other pot was perfect and always delivered a full portion of water. At the end of the long walk from the stream to the house, the cracked pot arrived only half full. For a full two years this went on daily, with the bearer delivering only one and a half pots full of water to his house. Of course, the perfect pot was proud of its accomplishments, perfect for which it was made. But the poor cracked pot was ashamed of its own imperfection, and miserable that it was able to accomplish only half of what it had been made to do. After 2 years of what it perceived to be a bitter failure, it spoke to the water bearer one day by the stream. "I am ashamed of myself because this crack in my side causes water to leak all the way back to your house."The bearer said to the pot, "Did you notice that there were flowers only on your side of the path, but not on the other pot's side? That's because I have always known about your flaw, and I planted flower seeds on your side of the path, and every day while we walk back, you've watered them. For two years I have been able to pick these beautiful flowers to decorate the table. Without you being just the way you are, there would not be this beauty to grace the house."




